David Leonhardt (Extracted from "What's ahead: blue skies, or more forecasts of them?", New York Times, 5 December 2005)

"In a new book, Ahead of the Curve (Harvard Business School Press, 2005), Joseph H. Ellis argues that the economy's direction is easier to divine than many people think. Cast aside the recession obsession, look beyond the torrent of confusing data each week, he says, and you can often tell what the economy's next move will be. . . In 2006, Mr. Ellis says, the economy will probably slow more than most forecasters predict, for the same important reason it has typically slowed at other points in the last 40 years -- weak wage growth. . . . We need to find a way to talk about slowing rates of growth. We need new language."

[Ed: Mr Ellis was a former partner at Goldman Sachs and was ranked the country's top retail analyst for 18 straight years by Institutional Investor magazine, so he's someone to pay attention to. He's right, of course. Since 1985, real average wages in all developed countries have declined. It has hardly been noticed because industries and retailers have rationalised at a faster rate and goods have become cheaper. I will be buying his book because I want to find out whether he also realises that the supply of significant consumer goods has also dried up since 1985 -- of the sort of goods that drove the Industrial Revolution of the 19th century and the Consumer Revolution of the 20th. I want to find out whether Mr Ellis realises that Western countries are now into uncharted new territory where more than new language will be required.]