Over the long term, the environment invariably shapes the genetic structure of all species. When man's predecessors were forced out of the contracting rain forests of Africa -- no doubt assisted by the 'push' of other physically stronger primates -- the more dangerous conditions of the open savannah imposed a premium on intelligence. When we were within the rain forest our frontal lobes were minimal -- no more than a thin strip adjacent to the motor neurons which actually instruct the body muscles. However, during our time in the open savannah our frontal lobes evolved prodigiously into something like 20% of the total area, enabling us to forward plan, to seek novelty, and to be able to think through problems more rigorously before taking decisions, among many other 'human' attributes.

For the last 200 years, since the beginnings of the industrial revolution and the higher skills that were required, there must have been a new selective effect for high intelligence within the developed countries. Because of the wider opportunities in industrial society in contrast to agricultural times, this selection for intelligence has obviously had effects already in terms of income, though not necessarily on progeny yet because any such effect would require differential birth rates as between the lowest and highest strata of society. There was a time about a century ago when (middle-class) eugenicists feared that the less intelligent would out-breed the more intelligent (that is, themselves!).

The evidence for this is suggestive at the present time. Taking income as a surrogate for IQ scores, the highest income stratum ($75,000+ p.a.) quoted in the latest US Current Population Survey (2000) are underperforming in the baby department by about 30% compared with the lower strata ($25,000 p.a. or less). If this continues for long enough then this will obviously have the effect of decreasing the mean IQ of Americans. How and whether this should be reversed by government policy in the longer term future will depend on much more complete evidence than is presently available. Sooner or later, I believe that at least one or two countries in the world will bring out a pronatalist policy for parents with high IQ with high financial inducements for those who produce more than two or three children. It's unlikely that this could ever be agreed in western democracies but the south-east Asian countries have fewer reservations about demographic legislation. But demographic changes occur in mysterious ways anyway (though understandable at gene level). After wartime, for example, birth-rates surge and also, the percentage of boy babies rises above the long term norm. Perhaps the widening gap in income levels in America and England will have the effect of increasing birth-rates among the higher IQs when it incomes reaches certain threshold levels.

However, it is a little more reasonable at this stage to note that the more longstanding mean IQ scores of sizeable ethnic groups or nations enables us to draw rather firmer conclusions, particularly because we can now see how they are currently responding to the higher-skill environments of today as 'muscular' industralisation gives way to automation and a far higher proportion of service occupations. In the book, IQ and the Wealth of Nations, by Lynn and Vanhanen (Praeger, 2000) there certainly seems to be a correlation between average IQ and current economic success. The effect of sizeable migrations of Ashkenazi Jews (IQ 110+) from central Europe into America (white IQ of 100 -- the same as Europe) in the early part of the last century has been immense (particularly in academe, law and commerce), as has been the effect of south-east Asians (IQ 106) in the latter half of the century (particularly in the sciences).

If you superimpose a normal (Bell-shaped) distribution curve on top of another one and then slide the top one towards the right by 6 or 10% then it can be seen that the numbers of those at about the IQ 125-130 mark doesn't increase by a mere 6 or 10% but three- or four-fold. This is the portion of the population from which we expect most innovation and enterprise. Looking a further along curve to genius level (say, IQ 130+) the increased number will be more like ten-fold. Thus, even modest gains in the mean IQ of a general population produces disproportionate increases at the higher IQ level.

The average Chinese IQ is 100 at the present time but this also includes a preponderant proportion of countryside inhabitants. When most of them have migrated into the (mainly) coastal cities, where their nutrition and general health will be much improved, then their IQ is likely to rise to that of the normal coastal and diaspora Chinese -- that is, about 106. (This is the so-called Flynn Effect, which has already had its effect in Europe and America.) So, since, the mandarins of China (that is, the Politburo) under Deng Xaoiping decided 20 years ago to re-enter the wider world by means of trade -- the first time for almost 600 years as a matter of state policy -- what have the Chinese achieved so far?

Quite apart from the usual manufacturing technologies which are already supplying large percentages of consumer goods to western countries, they are now at the leading edge in the very latest technologies such as ballistics, magnetic leviation transport, processor fabrication and biotechnology. So far, they have tended to lag behind in computer-related technologies though, with the largest firm in the world making PCs (Legend Computers), they are catching up fast. The Chinese have also lagged behind the Indians in supplying software development and 'back-office' services to estern multinationals but they intending to do so in the next few years.

The Chinese are also catching up in another computer-related technology which will affect the amour propre of America even more directly. An article in today's Financial Times describes the earliest stages of Chinese developments in that most quintessential of all American businesses -- film-making and, in particular, those produced by computer graphics. Considering that Hollywood spends most of its money these days on blockbuster films such as Terminator and Titanic which require intensive use of computer graphics, then it looks as though yet another American citadel is destined to fall to the Chinese. Yesterday's death of Elia Kazan in America is also a reminder that genius-directors are as important as technology and that there are likely to be several times more Chinese film-makers of genius than are to be found in America. (We might remind ourselves that Elia Kazan was born in Greece and was one of the thousands of brilliant Americans who were not home-grown but were recruited or had migrated from abroad.)

Keith Hudson

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CHINESE ANIMATED OVER COMPUTER GRAPHICS

Alexandra Harney

China's cheap labour has catapulted it into global leadership in the production of countless household items -- toys, radios and artificial flowers, to name a few.

Now, the world's most populous country is trying to apply the same formula to a more complex industry animated films. In a modest studio in the southern boomtown of Shenzhen, a computer graphics company is plotting China's assault on Hollywood.

"Our pool of talent in China is endless," says Anthony Neoh, chairman of Global Digital Creations, the studio's owner. "China will rival the US in computer graphics imagery in a few years."

Ambitious as it seems, Mr Neoh's venture illustrates how Chinese companies -- with help from international investors -- are rapidly diversifying from manufacturing into sectors normally beyond the reach of a country with an annual per capita income of less than US$900.

Much of this is happening in the Pearl river delta, which produces more than a third of China's exports each year.

While films such as Ang Lee's Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon might suggest otherwise, China has little experience with computer graphics for feature films. Mr Neoh, a Hong Kong lawyer and former chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and his brother, a computer graphics executive, saw this as an opportunity.

Using their own savings and loans from local banks, they linked with a local university and built a state-of-the-art studio on a dusty road in Shenzhen three years ago.

At the studio, GDC trains 150 students every nine months in the latest computer graphics animation techniques. Teachers are flown in from US film companies; English is also a mandatory part of the curriculum. The course costs $2,000 -- a staggering sum for students in China.

Despite the price tag, GDC receives eight applications for every place. Most students are in their 20s and 30s; some have little experience with computers; none has made a feature film before.

GDC hires more than half of the graduates each year, paying them as little as Rmb 3,000 ($362) a month.

Thru the Moebius Strip, the company's first feature film, is due to be completed by the end of this year and released in early 2004. A vivid tale that combines elements of Hamlet and Jack and the Beanstalk and not noticeably Chinese-made, the film will cost $10m to make.

By comparison, Pixar films cost $75m-$125m. Nickleodeon's Jimmy Neutron Boy Genius was considered low-budget at $30m.

"We are confident that we will be able to match the US studios [on quality]," says Mr Neoh. "We will outperform them five to one on cost."

GDC is not the only group that is turning to southern China for technology. Intel and Oracle both put their first Chinese design and development centres in Shenzhen. Samsung, Epson and IBM, as well as homegrown groups such as Huawei Technologies and ZTE are also there. As a result, technology output in Shenzhen leapt from Rmb23bn in 1995 to Rmb1,321bn in 2001, an annual increase of 36 per cent.

"Although Shenzhen lacks the universities of Beijing or Shanghai, its high-tech base is distinctive in China because it is driven by commercialisation," says Edith Scott, a principal at Enright, Scott & Associates, a Hong Kong-based research group.

"This commercialisation-driven model produces both a skillset and a mindset that can prove very useful to multinationals."

Computer animation is not new to Asia. Artists in South Korea have helped animate the hit US television series The Simpsons. Square, a Japanese software group, created the spectacularly unsuccessful film Final Fantasy.

Nor is southern China a one-stop shop for technology groups. In computer graphics at least, China still lacks sufficient design capabilities. GDC, for example, is using Chinese animators -- but they are relying on designs by cult French animator Jean "Moebius" Giraud.

"One of our weak points is that we are not good at research and development," says Guo Zhongxiao, a prominent stock market analyst in Shenzhen.

Shenzhen's limited public transportation also means that most GDC students have to live on campus. Wages are going up as well -- Shenzhen's salaries are already the second highest in China after Beijing -- a factor which is forcing some manufacturers to move to other parts of the country.

These facts have not dimmed GDC's ambitions. The group opened a school in Shanghai this month, and is planning another in Beijing. It is already working on a sequel to its first film and planning a television series and a computer game.

"We don't presume to aspire to the kind of box office returns that Finding Nemo or Monsters, Inc got," says Mr Neoh. "We would like to be the catalyst for a new industry in China."

Financial Times -- 29 September 2003

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