One of the members of this list has written to me

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It is this kind of creativity and opportunity [referring to marketing techniques mentioned in a book review] that makes me wonder whether there is any limitation on growth but disposable wealth and resources. You have been speculating that this whole process can run out of gas, but I'm not sure why it ever has to.

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Yes, I don't doubt that the frontal lobes of the human cortex (the additional material that the apes have very little of and which is the only part of our brain that specialises in novel perceptions and creativity) are able to create (and the consumer to enjoy) a never-ending succession of new products -- that is, if we assume that the total economic machine grinds on relentlessly allowing most people to continue to have jobs and income. However, my case is that the primary impetus of the economic machine (even when growing quite slowly) is, in fact, a steady supply of 'biggies' which I'm calling status goods.

The two main characteristics of status goods are:

1. They are expensive, initially rare and can therefore be flaunted as a sign of high status;

2. They carry a sufficiently high profit margin to have strongly stimulating effects on the economy. This, of course, will attract other competitive providers who are then able to reduce the price of the product successively and make it more widely available until, in due course, it becomes a staple item in everybody's life.

Some examples of status goods since the 1930s (in England) are: TV, central heating, cars, hi-fi, foreign holidays, wall-to-wall carpeting and, probably one or two more. All of these enabled the initiatory class (the well-heeled part of the middle class and above) to establish distinct status markers throughout this period, one after the other, followed thereafter by almost everybody else. One example of something which had the potential to become a status good in this period, but didn't, is a horse. Almost all well-off girls (and perhaps boys) who live in the countryside acquire a horse for a few years and almost every townie girl or boy, middle-class and downwards, would also have wished for a horse during the 1930-2000 period. It was not the expense that prevented this -- horses would have become cheap enough if the demand were there -- but the lack of pasture. The constraint of space is one of those that Fred Hirsch wrotes about in his Social Limits to Growth (1976). (Until recent years, semi-wild horses were allowed to roam in the quite large areas between apartment blocks in parts of Dublin, and even the poorest children could, and did, ride them.) Another space constraint (this time airspace) will prevent any sort of family helicopter or autogyro being a perfect candidate as a status good in the coming years.

In my book I am hoping to show that the logistics of modern middle-class life are such that there's scarcely space, time or energy for further status goods and that the economies of developed countries will slow down accordingly. If status goods are to be created and marketed in future years then it is likely that they will not be of the hardware type that has characterised the last 150 years but something quite different. It may well be that the next big status good will be unrejectable organ replacements grown from one's own stem cells.

The article that follows appeared in this year's The World in . . . series published by The Economist. What I find interesting is that the writer has not actually quoted much, if anything, that could qualify as a possible status good for this year. The only possible candidate he mentions -- a second home in France -- may well be a status acquisition for some, but it is scarcely possible that the supply would be sufficient for all English families!

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A LIFE OF LEISURE

Martin Vander Weyer

In one important aspect of their lives -- how they spend their spare time in 2003 -- Britons will divide, depressingly, into two quite separate categories. There will be those who use their leisure actively and intelligently. For them there will be a wider range of choice than ever before but they will form only a third of the population.

The rest, perhaps some 30 million people, will do next-to-nothing with their time other than shop and watch television. These two "activities" have reached such saturation levels that for many Britons, little changes from one year to the next they remain obsessive consumers and incorrigible couch potatoes. Two-thirds of adults will not go out to sports or cultural events as a matter of habit, and will read less \han a dozen books during the year; their children will spend ten hours watching the box for every one with a book, and the whole family will be gripped by gossip about the "reality" TV shows which will top the ratings.

But if this suggests a lacklustre sketch of the average Briton in their spare time, there will be plenty of other pursuits for the more active one-third of the populace, reflecting a changing economy as well as changing tastes, technology and legislation. Almost a fifth of all household income will be spent on leisure, double the level of 50 years ago. For young adults, low interest rates and full employment will boost spending power in pubs, restaurants, night clubs and health clubs -- though in the latter case, it can safely be forecast, many who pay a hefty subscription with the healthiest intentions will make little use of it after the first couple of visits. And among teenagers, the unhealthiest trend will be the continuing rise of binge drinking of heavily marketed, sweet-flavoured, malt-based drinks.

For the staider middle-aged and middle-class, the strength of house values -- albeit likely to erode in 2003 -- will provide capital to finance expensive home and garden improvements, and in a growing number of cases, second homes abroad. More than half of all Britons say they would like to live abroad if they had the chance, and in 2003 tens of thousands more will join the million-plus who have already bought houses in rural France -- often at a third of the cost of the British equivalent -- or apartments in the south of Spain. Second homeowners and adventurous shoppers will take advantage of the meteoric growth in low-cost, no-frills airlines offering cheap trips to many European cities Barcelona, Nice and Dublin will be weekend favourites.

But for older generations, poor stockmarket returns and worries about their pensions will force many towards a more frugal way of life. Some who had planned to retire early by 2003 will set aside the possibilities of leisure in order to go on earning a living for a few more years. Others will devote spare time to learning useful new skills, particularly those of computer literacy -- and adult creative-writing classes will be over-subscribed as a result. For all age groups, the new availability of broadband connections will increase the use of the Internet as a source of entertainment and information.

New laws, meanwhile, will affect leisure in a variety of ways. A ban (or the imposition of strict licensing) on foxhunting will constrain or criminalise the main hobby and social focus of thousands of country dwellers; other equestrian traditions, such as point-to-point racing, will diminish in parallel. Much larger numbers of people, however, will acquire the improving habit of visiting national museums and galleries, for which the Labour government abolished entrance charges in 2002. In the first months of the scheme, admissions were up by 62%, with London's South Kensington museum complex attracting 2 million extra visitors; 2003 should be another bumper year.

It will also be a good year for gamblers, who will grow in number and whose pastime will become fashionable -- following a government review of all forms of gaming. Legislation in 2003 will deregulate Britain's casinos, and the number is expected to double from its present figure of 112. Blackpool is bidding to become the Las Vegas of the north of England, while Brighton and Bournemouth may offer some southern competition. Some 40,000 more glittering jackpot slot-machines will appear across the country, while Internet betting at websites such as Sportingbet.com will be a growing habit -- especially for those who abandoned as a lost cause their previous hobby of online share trading.

With more glamorous games of chance on offer, the National Lottery --despite rebranding itself Lotto -- will struggle to attract ticket sales, which means that lottery-funded grants for the arts, sport and heritage will fall bad news for those pastimes which need high levels of financial support. That includes live classical music, which will in turn struggle to attract younger audiences. Only one concert-goer in 20 will be under 25, and venues such as London's Barbican will find two-thirds of their audiences from among the over-55s.

Yet young people will listen to the classics casually, as background to other activities Classic FM, a radio station, will attract 1 million listeners under 25. And the young will also go to the cinema in greater numbers than at any time since 1972, the year of "The Godfather" they have almost 70 more screens to choose from than a decade ago. Cinema audiences should pass 180m; two-thirds will be under 35. The rest will stay at home and watch DVDs.

From The World in 2003, The Economist January 2003

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